Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Kalen Davison's avatar

Love the provocative title – interesting and thoughtful take. Things may change a bit in the next month as the Harris campaign releases more detail on a policy platform, but I think the relative backrounding of climate is a trend that will continue through the election.

This is what you seem to be getting at with your "triangulation" point – but I attribute this to fairly basic (but still interesting) campaign strategy. I'd distinguish between two general categories of issues in American politics today – 'Energizing' problems and 'Coalition-Building' problems. The former includes issues that the left-of-center base cares deeply about and excites them – driving fundraising, volunteering, and campaign growth (e.g. climate change, trans issues, social justice) – but may repel moderates. The latter includes issues where there's general consensus between the left and moderates and can attract centrists/moderate Rs without alienating progressives (e.g. inflation is bad, border should be more secure, etc.).

Harris' campaign seems to be leaning aggressively into messaging around the latter set of issues. She and Walz are already perceived as ~ progressives, and they've been doing very well on the enthusiasm front – so it makes sense to focus on the coalition-building side.

It's interesting to contrast that with Biden's campaign, which had the opposite problem/strength in 2020. He entered the race with broader coalition support, but lacked enthusiasm; that's why I think his campaign leaned so heavily into messaging around climate.

I think the big outstanding question is to what extent a potential Harris admin would prioritize climate against other issues. It's been commonly remarked that Obama had to choose between major change on healthcare and climate and chose healthcare. Biden prioritized climate and infrastructure. Would be interesting to see whether a Harris Admin would be just an ally (e.g. just implement IRA) or a leader on climate (more ambitious new policy like a US CSRD or CBAM etc.).

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts